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Unlock your potential
by using the
premier strategy development and implementation organisation
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Energy Edge Electricity Markets Model
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OUR MODEL
The Energy Edge model determines balances between supply and
demand in European power markets over the next few decades.
Growth in demand is extrapolated by looking at possible population and
GDP growth rates and realistic demand destruction options (such
as efficiency measures and embedded generation) and linking these
factors to model likely demand over the next few decades.
On the other side of the equation, we can look at the current and
contracted generation capacity, along with scheduled closures, to
determine the likely capacity gap. The challenge, then, is how to
close the gap.
CLOSING THE GAP - DESCRIBING A RATIONAL MARKET OUTCOME
Power infrastructure builders will use a number of tools to
determine how to invest in capacity needed to close the future
generation gap in the EU. To the simplest approximation,
investors will maximize net present value over the lifetime of the
plant; however, equally important factors such as investment
uncertainty and the need to diversify portfolios as well as
security of supply, the constraints and incentives provided by
regulation, and the possibility of shocks in such factors as carbon and
fuel prices and capital costs will all play a role.
The Energy Edge power markets model is an interactive tool, designed to
allow the user to take apart the assumptions that drive possible build
and price regimes in order to generate scenarios for understanding the
markets and to test these scenarios for self-consistency.
WHY DO THIS? WHAT CAN BE ACHIEVED
The Energy Edge model differs from many of the conventional
market studies and forecasts produced in several ways:
• Often, such studies tend to describe the world in
terms of a variance between “low” and “high” scenarios. Using our
model, you care free to develop a more in-depth view of the outcomes
and assumptions lying between and beyond the "low" and the
"high".
• As methodology and in some cases assumptions are
often hidden, studies or reports can serve as static documents.
Working with Energy Edge, you can see and, more importantly, vary
the variables and assumptions, making the product fully
transparent.
WHAT WE CAN OFFER YOU
• Iterative scenario-playing, where your questions
about possible developments in the market are answered by Energy Edge
in a way that allows us to turn around and challenge them with other
possibilities and scenarios and thus avenues for our study
• Feeding challenging content and avenues of
approach into regular briefings for you or your clients.
• In commodity markets, such as coal and gas, our
model can help you develop a robust, demand-driven outlook on
prices, volime, and more.
Working with our you, we can combine a tool for obtaining the outcomes
of possible decisions with the vision to conceive of the decisions
which could possibly be made in order to “wargame” scenarios. If
you would like to talk more about the Energy Edge Power Markets model
and its applications, please contact Linus Adler today.
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